Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.949691 1.106297 1.280189 1.487539 1.728034 1.998187 2.324723
2025-01-19 0.667978 0.868478 1.115984 1.443779 1.866462 2.393217 3.099907
2025-01-26 0.542273 0.762011 1.054331 1.471236 2.050430 2.826798 3.947406
2025-02-02 0.480596 0.719341 1.056813 1.567889 2.322052 3.394235 5.035916
2025-02-09 0.421930 0.667090 1.032341 1.615009 2.520859 3.875842 6.058961
2025-02-16 0.370286 0.614913 0.996950 1.635440 2.675470 4.303387 7.048245
2025-02-23 0.324762 0.564099 0.954317 1.634809 2.791438 4.678297 7.994247
2025-03-02 0.284912 0.515976 0.908067 1.619343 2.876921 5.008521 8.900884
2025-03-09 0.254338 0.478958 0.874628 1.619361 2.985480 5.385237 9.926625
2025-03-16 0.220182 0.430345 0.813942 1.561713 2.982219 5.563497 10.616729
2025-03-23 0.212402 0.429742 0.839752 1.665458 3.285735 6.323946 12.461344
2025-03-30 0.187895 0.393189 0.793134 1.624516 3.308250 6.563321 13.342473
2025-04-06 0.164665 0.356566 0.742814 1.571945 3.305673 6.762549 14.187619
2025-04-13 0.144850 0.324361 0.697409 1.523827 3.306824 6.971013 15.082491
2025-04-20 0.134594 0.311157 0.689390 1.552717 3.471467 7.529186 16.772302
2025-04-27 0.131397 0.313115 0.713782 1.654655 3.805505 8.479283 19.418198
2025-05-04 0.124241 0.304965 0.714828 1.704352 4.029467 9.217487 21.684995
2025-05-11 0.115751 0.292447 0.704320 1.725901 4.191389 9.836049 23.753602
2025-05-18 0.106696 0.277250 0.685560 1.725235 4.300446 10.345519 25.626390
2025-05-25 0.097641 0.260784 0.661667 1.708923 4.369519 10.769086 27.343770
2025-06-01 0.090418 0.248019 0.645209 1.708942 4.478659 11.299892 29.387309
2025-06-08 0.080798 0.227578 0.606899 1.648141 4.426168 11.429772 30.438539
2025-06-15 0.080255 0.231695 0.632314 1.757560 4.828548 12.740951 34.686530